Matt LaFleur is known for his love of running the football, and last season was no exception. But now with Jordan Love at quarterback, LaFleur has the chance to fully reshape the offense according to his vision — and it looks like that vision still revolves around running the ball… a lot.
Looking at the PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) metric, the Packers were one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL last season. They ran the ball 8.4% more than an average NFL team would, coming in as the third-most run-heavy team in the league, just behind the Colts and Eagles.
This trend becomes even clearer when we look at the team’s 1st-and-10 plays. The Packers were extremely run-heavy in almost every personnel grouping, especially in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE) with a run rate of 56.3% (higher than the NFL average). They ran the ball 66.4% of the time in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) and an eye-popping 90.3% of the time in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE).
Despite the success running the ball, with an impressive 5.67 yards per carry from 11 personnel, the Packers actually had a more efficient passing attack, averaging 7.87 yards per attempt — over a yard better than their rushing average.
So why does LaFleur continue to rely so heavily on the run? While the running game works in certain situations, with the Packers’ passing game being more efficient, it’s time for Packers to rethink their strategy. Maybe it’s time to let Jordan Love shine and shift focus towards passing, which could elevate the overall efficiency of the offense.
LaFleur needs to refresh the playbook, and a slight shift towards the passing game could be just what the Packers need to take their offense to the next level in 2025.
