The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves amidst a critical decision regarding the future of their star outside linebacker, T.J. Watt.
With a potential contract extension on the horizon, the Steelers could be looking at shelling out around $40 million per year to keep this defensive powerhouse on board. Now, before you balk at that figure, it’s essential to understand the landscape of the NFL and how this number aligns with the market’s evolution.
📈 Understanding the Market
In the realm of elite edge rushers, salaries are scaling heights that seem dizzying at first glance — yet they’re entirely consistent with the trajectory we’ve seen in recent years.
Take Myles Garrett, for example: he signed a 4-year, $160 million deal with the Cleveland Browns. With the current cap sitting at $279.2 million, Garrett’s deal accounts for about 14.3% of the cap — a strategic move, not a gamble.
When Watt inked his 5-year, $112 million deal in 2021, the cap was at $182.5 million. That meant Watt was commanding roughly 15% of the cap — and adjusted for cap growth, his next deal could easily justify $43 million per year, even at age 30.
💪 The Value of Watt
Some fans may worry — not about Watt’s talent — but about:
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His age
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His injury history
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Whether the Steelers should commit so much to a single player, given they’re not current Super Bowl favorites.
But those concerns are muted when you consider Watt’s production.
Over the past four seasons, he’s posted an average AV (approximate value) of 13.75, even with injuries factored in. By comparison, first-round picks average around 6–7 AV per season
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Trading Watt, even for a premium package of picks, likely wouldn’t return equal on-field value. Unless a blockbuster trade like the Herschel Walker deal materializes — an extreme long shot — moving Watt doesn’t make football sense.
🗣️ Front Office Insight
Steelers GM Omar Khan recently stated:
“I don’t expect salaries to go down. So I expect them to keep increasing year-to-year.”
That’s not just commentary — it’s a strategy. The NFL’s financial ecosystem now rewards locking in elite players, and in today’s market, Watt’s price is the going rate for greatness.
🧠 Final Take
T.J. Watt’s next deal won’t be cheap. But it won’t be irresponsible, either.
It will be an investment in identity, in leadership, and in one of the few defenders who can truly change a game.
For the Steelers, the question isn’t “can we afford T.J. Watt?”
It’s “can we afford not to?”
